Be in a recession in 4q23. They were expecting unemployment to tick up past 4% in Nov, I believe it was, but it actually ticked down 20 bps to 3.7%.

I think that’s the difference maker - job market resilience. It’s the reason last year turned out so much better than expectations, and the length of its legs will determine how this year plays out. It could be the ballast that keeps the US economy afloat even with all those mines floating around. That’s really the factor that’s been defying pessimistic expectations.

Whether or not it keeps doing that this year probably determines outcome. Maybe of the election too. Although better than expected isn’t helping Biden in polling now.